Back-to-school spending used to be a clear, concentrated retail moment, but we all knew this season was never going to be “business as usual”. The 2025 season has become a fragmented, financially loaded storyline that mirrors a larger shift in consumer behavior. From budget-stretched families to Gen Z’s unapologetic splurging, brands now need to respond to fragmented timing, generational differences, and the evolving definition of “value.”
So, what happened this back-to-school season? And which brands got it right?
Here’s what we’ve learned—and what marketers need to do next.
Back-to-School Spending is Stable, But Loyalty is Anything But
This year, families planned to spend $570 per child, according to Deloitte—flat YoY but still down from the 2022 peak of $660. In this climate, value is the priority, and shoppers are making quick, decisive trade-offs (TL;DR – Consumers aren’t spending more, they’re just shopping smarter).
- 75% are willing to switch brands over price (up from 67% just a year ago).
- Private label is on the rise, with over half of shoppers opting for store brands over name brands.
- Mass retailers continue to win share, with 46% of shoppers spending most of their budget there (up from 40% in 2024)
Marketer takeaway: Shoppers are prioritizing value and convenience over loyalty. Retaining loyalty will come down to strategic promotions, ease of experience, and value storytelling that builds emotional relevance. It’s no longer just about the discounts.
Gen Z Continues to Spend on What Matters to Them (And They’re Doing it on Credit)
Despite headlines about tightening wallets, Gen Z appears as an outlier. According to McKinsey’s State of the Consumer 2025 report:
- Gen Z spending remains strong, especially in apparel and beauty products.
- 50% of surveyed US Gen Z say that they don’t have enough money saved to support their lifestyle for more than one month—but, over a third are willing to buy on credit. 13% higher than other generations.
- They lead in food and grocery delivery spend, showing convenience still wins
- They’re shopping on Social media: 75% report using social media for back-to-school shopping, compared to less than half of older shoppers.
- Those who do use social media spend an average of 1.8x as much as those who don’t. (Deloitte)
Marketer Takeaway:
Social-first, experience-led strategies are how brands are staying top of mind and “in-cart”. Gen Z isn’t just TikTok dancing and sorority rushing their way to school—their feeds are influencing their shopping patterns. Meet them with intentional content, creator integrations, and native commerce opportunities.
Financial Pessimism is Up, Even if Spending Hasn’t Caught Up Yet
According to the Pew Research Center, roughly three-in-ten adults (28%) expect their finances to be worse a year from now. This is up significantly from the 16% who said so in May 2024. And only 20% of lower-income adults say they’re currently in excellent or good shape today.
But spending patterns don’t yet reflect a pullback:
- A JP Morgan analysis of Chase card spending data shows discretionary spending is still strong – especially among Millennials and Gen Z, who are outpacing 2024 levels by twice the percentage of other consumers.
Marketer Takeaway: The psychological shift is what matters most right now. Consumers are treating tight budgets as the new normal, approaching purchases with a “shopping smarter, not smaller” mindset. Brands should respond with flexible value and segmentation strategies that support cautious but deliberate spending.
Back-to-School is No Longer a Single Retail Moment
Back-to-school shopping has historically clustered around late summer, but in 2025 it is spreading across seasonality. According to Zeta Global’s back-to-school parent survey:
- Shoppers who say they do back to school shopping in June or September have both risen 10% or more.
- Retailer timelines are no longer the driver. Families are aligning their shopping behavior with their financial calendars and personal schedules: with locking in early deals in June, and waiting for last-minute promotions in August and September.
- Parents are stretching their spend across multiple trips and channels, based on deals and urgency.
Marketer Takeaway: Treat back-to-school as a series of micro-moments, not one campaign. Segment messaging by behavior: early planners, mid-season spenders, and late-season promo hunters all want different things, at different times.
School’s In—But the Shopping (And the Shakeout) Isn’t Over
Kids may be back in classrooms this week, but back-to-school spending hasn’t fully wrapped. While the final receipts are still rolling in (and yes, a few last-minute deal hunters are still out there), the early signals are undeniable:
- Private label surged, accounting for nearly half of all back-to-school unit sales. (Circana)
- 67% of parents started shopping in early July, the highest share ever recorded by the National Retail Federation.
But families aren’t just changing when they shop. They’re changing how, where, and why. And the brands that adapted early are already seeing the return.
So, Who Got it Right This Season?
It may be too early to declare a definitive winner, but a few brands clearly understood the assignment:
- JanSport’s “Always With You” campaign nailed the social-first formula. Built for TikTok and YouTube, it prioritized Gen Z content consumption patterns. Not only did they boast higher interaction and longer view times, but it also led to the brand’s highest-grossing sales day in its 57-year history.
- Target’s “All of the Above” flexed its cross-audience muscle, blending creator-led storytelling with mass appeal—meeting the needs of parents, teachers, and students through smart private label plays and value-first messaging.
- Urban Outfitters’ “UO Haul” campaign turned back-to-school into a lifestyle moment. With citywide scavenger hunts, immersive pop-ups, and a U-Haul partnership supporting college move-ins, it blurred the line between content and experience.
Even niche brands tapped the culture: Aldi got playful with Labubu doll accessories, while Poppi scaled up its campus ambassador program—planting a flag in Gen Z’s favorite category (and cementing its role in Gen Z’s functional beverage lineup).
We’ll be watching the Q3 earnings roll in, but these campaigns were more than just clever ways to connect with Gen Z. They showcase strategic responses to real behavior changes: earlier spending, social-first discovery, and a consumer demand for value that goes well beyond the price.
Looking Ahead: Back-to-School 2025 is Just the Warm-up for Q4 Spending
Back-to-school 2025 didn’t deliver a single, clean consumer narrative—and that’s the point. Some families locked in early. Others are still deal-hunting. Meanwhile, Gen Z and younger Millennials are spending selectively, often on credit, with digital-first expectations.
That divergence will only deepen as we head into the holiday season.
As marketers look ahead to the Q4 holiday window, instead of chasing “the average consumer,” smart brands will design campaigns for diverging shopper mindsets:
- The deal-seekers (mass retail, early promotions)
- The splurgers (fashion, beauty, convenience)
- The cautious planners (late-season, needs-based, value-driven)
Understanding these mindsets is key to transcending the “traditional” retail calendar. Brands that adjust now—rethinking timing, personalization, and promotional structure—will be positioned to capture more share as the stakes rise in November and December.
Ready to Build Smarter for Holiday?
At Bold Orange, we help brands translate shifting behavior into smart, effective go-to-market strategies. If you’re planning for peak season and want to pick our brains—or need a place to start—let’s chat.
